Voters will judge Trump on the economy - how is it doing?
The US economy grew by 2% annually in the first quarter of 2026, driven largely by tech and AI investments, despite pressures from higher oil prices and inflation linked to the ongoing Iran conflict. While stock markets have rebounded and GDP figures offer political leverage, rising living costs and stalled interest rate cuts pose challenges for voters ahead of the November midterms. President Trump's economic standing hinges on balancing strong headline growth against the reality of consumer strain.
- ▪The US economy grew by 2% on an annualised basis in the first quarter of 2026, rebounding from a late 2025 slowdown.
- ▪Oil prices surged after the Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent crude to a four-year high of $126 and fuel prices to $4.30 per gallon.
- ▪Inflation rose to 3.3% in March, up from 2.4% in February, delaying expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts until possibly 2027.
- ▪Tech and AI investment have become the primary drivers of US economic growth, offsetting weaker consumer spending.
- ▪Major US stock indices have gained since the war began, with the Nasdaq up around 10%, the S&P 500 about 5% higher, and the Dow rising just over 1%.
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Voters will judge Trump on the economy - how is it doing?26 minutes agoShareSaveAdd as preferred on GoogleArchie MitchellBusiness reporterGetty ImagesDonald Trump once predicted the US-Israeli war in Iran would last no longer than six weeks. It has now entered its third month.The conflict has caused a global energy shock on a par with the oil crises of the 1970s, driving up prices of everything from fuel to groceries.Despite piling additional pressure on already hard-pressed Americans, the latest GDP figures out this week showed the economy motoring along in the first three months of 2026.As America's first quarter growth figures offered a boost, the BBC examines how major US economic indicators are looking for the president, with midterm elections looming in November and no sign of the…
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