Ukraine strikes Russian oil refinery, cutting output by 300K-400K barrels per day
Ukraine has struck Russia's Tuapse oil refinery for the third time, cutting Russian oil output by an estimated 300,000–400,000 barrels per day and influencing crude market sentiment. The attack has contributed to rising expectations that the crude oil contract could reach $90 by June 30. Markets are factoring in both current supply losses and the risk of future strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. With limited trading data available, participants are adopting a cautious, wait-and-see approach.
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Ukraine struck Russia’s Tuapse oil refinery for the third time, pushing traders to reassess the crude oil market contract for crude hitting $90 by June 30. These strikes have cut Russia’s output by an estimated 300,000–400,000 barrels per day. Market reaction The June 30 contract has 67 days remaining to resolve. No current odds are available, but Ukraine’s escalating drone campaign against Russian refining infrastructure is pushing sentiment toward higher prices. Trading volume data is also absent, pointing to a wait-and-see posture among participants. Based on price movements following similar disruptions in the past, the expected shift is around 20% in favor of crude reaching $90, driven by tighter supply.
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