Russia to recruit 18,500 foreign fighters by 2026, signals prolonged conflict
Ukrainian intelligence reports Russia plans to recruit 18,500 foreign fighters by 2026, signaling a prolonged conflict. Market odds for a ceasefire by the end of 2027 have dropped to 30%, reflecting expectations of continued escalation. The lack of liquidity in the ceasefire market underscores waning confidence in near-term peace. Meanwhile, the Russia Enter Rai-Oleksandrivka market remains at 100% YES with active trading.
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Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia plans to recruit 18,500 foreigners to fill its military ranks in 2026. The ceasefire-by-end-of-2027 market sits at 30% YES, down sharply as traders price in continued escalation. ## Market reaction Odds for a ceasefire by end of 2027 dropped 15 percentage points following the recruitment news. The market has 251 days until resolution, and traders are reading Russia’s manpower expansion as a signal that the war continues well into next year. The Russia Enter Rai-Oleksandrivka market holds at 100% YES, unchanged by the recruitment news. Trading volume there is $40,703 in real USDC, with the April 30 contract seeing the most activity. ## Why it matters The ceasefire market’s volume sits at $0, meaning there is no liquidity right now.
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