Iran proposes reopening Strait of Hormuz post-war, US rejects conditions

Iran has proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz only after the war concludes and with guarantees against resumption. The US-Iran ceasefire market for April 30 is at 2.9% YES, down from 18% a week ago. US officials rejected Iran’s conditions, and traders have responded accordingly. The odds for Trump announcing an end to military operations by April 30 sit at 2.9% YES, with only two days left on the clock. The US invasion of Iran market remains dormant, though Iran’s hardline stance could push it slightly upward. The ceasefire market has $66,661 in USDC traded, and it would take $111,818 to move the odds by 5 percentage points. The largest movement was a 48-point spike driven by speculative trading rather than any substantive change on the ground.

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