Trump orders extended Iran blockade, escalating diplomatic tensions

Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, increasing pressure on Tehran. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 market already had low odds, and blockade preparations are likely to push them lower still. Market reaction The market predicting the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by April 30 sits at 0.2% YES, down from 1% a day ago. The crude oil market for prices reaching $90 by end of June could see more activity, since a blockade may disrupt supply and push oil prices up. Daily face value for the enriched uranium market is $12,115, but actual USDC traded is $318. It costs $642 to move this market by 5 percentage points, meaning it’s thin but not trivially manipulable.

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