Israeli shelling on Labour Day escalates tensions in Lebanon

## Market Snapshot In the “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by April 30, 2026?” market, the YES probability is at 0.1%, unchanged from 24 hours ago. For the “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?” market, the YES probability is at 3%, up from 2% a day ago. The “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?” market is priced at 9% YES, down from 10% yesterday. ## Key Takeaways – The recent shelling suggests increased military activity, consistent with a decrease in the likelihood of Israeli withdrawal by April 30, 2026. – Market pricing implies participants view the ongoing conflict as reducing the chances of an imminent ceasefire holding. – The incident appears to reinforce perceptions of a fragile truce, potentially impacting long-term withdrawal scenarios.

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