Ukraine to escalate drone attacks amid ongoing conflict with Russia

## Market Snapshot In the “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026” market, the probability of a ceasefire is currently priced at 0.1% YES, unchanged from 24 hours ago and down from 1% a week ago. In contrast, the May 31, 2026, market stands at 5.6% YES, slightly down from 6% a day prior. ## Key Takeaways – The statement by a Ukrainian drone commander suggests an escalation in drone warfare, consistent with a decreased likelihood of a ceasefire. – Market activity reflects a stable outlook for an April ceasefire, with little change in YES pricing. – The May ceasefire market shows minor fluctuations, suggesting uncertainty about near-term diplomatic progress.

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