Israel destroys major Hezbollah tunnel in Lebanon, ceasefire prospects dim

Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed Israel’s destruction of a major Hezbollah tunnel in southern Lebanon. The ceasefire extension market for an extension by April 26 sits at 99.8% YES, but odds for a broader Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 have decreased as active military engagement continues. Market reaction Volume data shows the ceasefire extension market at $3.1M in actual USDC traded daily, with $1.6M needed to move the market by 5 points. The largest recent move was a 50-point drop at 11:40 AM. That combination of high liquidity and sharp single-session swings points to active positioning and sensitivity to new developments. The tunnel’s size and strategic purpose suggest Hezbollah built it for sustained operations, which works against near-term ceasefire prospects.

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