Trump cancels delegations, rejects Iran proposal amid uranium talks limbo
Trump has canceled planned delegations and rejected Iran's latest proposal, impacting prediction markets that now show low odds of a near-term deal on uranium stockpile surrender. Markets indicate dwindling confidence in a resolution by April 30, with the probability dropping to 0.5% YES amid thin trading volume and speculative spikes. The cancellation of Trump's Pakistan visit further signals diplomatic stagnation, with traders pricing in any potential breakthrough as increasingly distant.
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Trump has canceled planned delegations and rejected the latest Iranian proposal. Iran surrendering its uranium stockpile by April 30 sits at 0.5% YES, down from 11% a week ago. The Iran uranium stockpile surrender by April 30 market has collapsed to 0.5% YES from 11% a week ago. The June 30 and December 31 markets hold at 21.5% and 39.5%, respectively, meaning traders see any resolution as months away at best. Trump’s canceled visit to Pakistan is also showing up in the markets. Odds of him visiting by April 30 are at 0.5% YES, while the May 31 market is at 6.5% YES, down from 20% a week ago. The largest jump was a 42-point spike on a single order, which has since stabilized.
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