Iran ceasefire eases oil supply fears, Strait of Hormuz reopens
A ceasefire between the US and Iran has eased immediate concerns over oil supply disruptions, leading to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, yet prediction markets still show near-certain odds of crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30. Despite reduced geopolitical tensions, the Polymarket contract for oil hitting a record high remains at 99.9% YES, indicating expectations of short-term price spikes. Markets are reacting sharply to news, with minimal trading volume capable of moving prices significantly. The current pricing reflects anticipated volatility rather than a structural shift in oil supply or demand.
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The Polymarket contract for crude oil hitting an all-time high by April 30 jumped from 2% to 2% YES in a single day, even as a ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eased immediate supply fears from the US-Iran conflict. Market reaction The crude oil all-time high market is priced at 2% YES. The largest move was a 1-point spike at 5:31 AM, showing the contract still reacts sharply to geopolitical news. The WTI Crude Oil price in April 2026 markets are still pricing in the ceasefire’s effects, though current odds for that contract are not available. Daily face value on the crude oil all-time high market was $100,828, with $2,513 in actual USDC traded. Just $695 could move the market by 5 points, which means a single large trade could shift the price meaningfully.
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