How the Iran War Scored Trump His Biggest OPEC Win Yet

...By Newsweek EditorsShareNewsweek is a Trust Project memberSee more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.It was a stunning announcement: The UAE is leaving the oil cartel OPEC on May 1 this year.The news will be warmly welcomed in the White House as a win for President Donald Trump, who has long railed against OPEC for distorting oil prices. “This decision reflects the UAE’s long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile, including accelerated investment in domestic energy production, and reinforces its commitment to a responsible, reliable, and forward-looking role in global energy markets,” the UAE said.The exit of the UAE is a major blow to OPEC. It calls into question OPEC's ability to sustain the collective restraint of oil-producing nations across the world—many of them strategic rivals to the U.S.—and manipulate oil prices higher to their advantage.Trump's Iran war appears to have been the catalyst for the UAE's exit, though it is not the sole cause.The war's impact on the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the global oil and gas trade passes, has driven oil prices painfully higher. Iran has attacked commercial vessels transiting the "closed" strait, while the U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports.This gives Abu Dhabi a greater incentive to break free from OPEC's stifling production limits and instead use its spare capacity to generate revenue, fulfilling its own ambitions on capacity. The war has also exposed the Gulf's energy-security vulnerabilities, increasing the need to take a view of oil production rooted in national and regional interests rather than those of fellow OPEC producers who live outside the Middle East. Moreover, the Iran war has sharpened regional political strains, especially with Saudi Arabia, which serves a leading role in OPEC. UAE-Saudi relations had already been under strain over economic issues and Yemen.And then there's Russia. The UAE's exit damages the Saudi-Russia production-management machine. It weakens Moscow's influence over the oil market, though it has wounded itself in this regard through the Ukraine war.Ultimately, the UAE has chosen a path of independence and setting its own policy free from the demands of OPEC.Its success outside could further rupture OPEC if other members see the logic for themselves, fracturing a cartel that has kept oil prices elevated for decades and often been a tool of leverage used against Western interests.All told, this is a significant win for Trump and a big plus for his Iran war strategy, one that he will seek to build on by encouraging more to follow the UAE's lead.Hey gang, Carlo Versano here. I hope you enjoyed this article. As Newsweek's Director of Politics and Culture and editor of the 1600 newsletter, I'm keen to hear what you think. Now, Newsweek is offering a new service to allow you to communicate directly with me in the form of a text message chat. You can sign up and get a direct line to me, as well as the reporters who work for me. You can shape our coverage.As a Newsweek member, we're offering this service to you for free. You can sign up below, or read more about how it works here. Let's talk! /* Ensure no parent container clips or restricts height */ div.subtext-iframe, .wp-block-custom-html, .wp-block-custom-html .subtext-iframe, .entry-content .subtext-iframe, .entry-content iframe #subtext_flex_embed, iframe#subtext_flex_embed {…

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