Hezbollah claims drone attacks on Israeli forces, ceasefire at risk

Hezbollah claimed responsibility for drone attacks on Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, threatening the fragile ceasefire. The April 26 ceasefire extension market sits at 99.8% YES, down slightly from 100% a day ago. Market reaction The odds were as low as 68% just a week ago, showing how volatile this market has been during ongoing hostilities. The largest move in the past 24 hours was a 50-point drop from 100% to 50%. Daily face value is over $3.1 million, and it takes $1.6 million to move the odds by just 5 points. That kind of liquidity means sharp price swings require real capital, but also that events like today’s drone attack can trigger fast repricing.

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