Why I Stopped Reading 10-Year Rolling Return Charts
The article explains why the author has stopped relying on 10-year rolling return charts to predict stock market performance, noting that the S&P 500 has continued to reach near-record highs despite bearish signals from those charts. It highlights the limitations of using historical valuations and long-term return patterns as timing tools for market entry or exit. The author suggests that structural changes in the economy and market dynamics may reduce the relevance of traditional metrics based on past cycles.
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