US-Iran deal will not be signed today, official says, but progress reported
A senior US official announced that a US-Iran agreement will not be signed today, although discussions are reportedly making progress. This statement aligns with market expectations that a deal is not imminent but could occur in the near future. The lack of a confirmed signing date or terms leaves some uncertainty in the market.
- ▪A senior US administration official stated that no US-Iran agreement will be signed on May 24.
- ▪The official characterized the ongoing talks as making progress, which supports a potential deal in the near future.
- ▪Market pricing reflects a high likelihood of a deal occurring between May 26 and June 7.
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## Market Snapshot The May 24 sub-market sits at 6.5% YES with hours remaining, while May 25 prices at 17.5% YES and May 26 at 23.5% YES. The June 7 sub-market holds at 70.5% YES, reflecting market pricing that any deal remains a near-term but not imminent outcome. ## Key Takeaways – A senior US official’s explicit statement that no agreement will be signed today appears consistent with the May 24 sub-market resolving NO. – “Making progress” language suggests participants view continued diplomatic engagement as likely, supporting the longer-dated June 7 sub-market’s elevated 70.5% YES pricing. – Near-term sub-markets (May 25, May 26) appear to reflect residual uncertainty, consistent with vague but constructive official language.
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