U.N. lowers forecast for global economic growth in 2026 over Mideast energy crisis
The United Nations has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 down to 2.5% due to crises in the Middle East and rising oil prices. Inflation is also expected to increase, with projections of 3.9% this year, significantly higher than earlier estimates. The impact of higher energy prices is anticipated to vary between developed and developing countries, affecting real incomes differently.
- ▪The U.N. lowered its global GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 2.7% to 2.5%.
- ▪Global inflation is projected to rise to 3.9% this year, up from earlier forecasts.
- ▪Inflation rates are expected to increase more in developing countries compared to developed ones.
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UNITED NATIONS — Responding to Middle East crises and rising oil prices, the United Nations on Tuesday lowered its forecast for global economic growth and raised the prospects for inflation this year. U.N. economists said global GDP growth is now forecast at 2.5% for 2026, down from 2.7% in January, and they said it could fall to only 2.1% “in a more adverse scenario.” That would be one of the weakest growth rates this century, outside of the COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis of 2008, Shantanu Mukherjee, director of economic analysis in the U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, said at a news conference. Global inflation is projected to rise to 3.9% this year, 0.8% higher than forecast in January, before the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran.
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