UK assets face underestimated risk event, analysts warn as PM hopeful swerves call to calm investor nerves
Analysts warn that UK markets are underestimating the political risks associated with the upcoming Makerfield by-election. Ebury's Matthew Ryan highlighted the significant market implications of a potential Andy Burnham victory, which could lead to a leftward shift in economic policy. Current predictions suggest a high likelihood of leadership change, with investors showing increased anxiety over UK fiscal stability.
- ▪Ebury analysts believe markets are underestimating the consequences of the Makerfield by-election.
- ▪Matthew Ryan warned that a Burnham victory could lead to a significant leftward shift in economic policy.
- ▪Prediction markets currently give Burnham a 59% chance of becoming the next UK Prime Minister.
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In an analysis published Wednesday, financial services firm Ebury said markets were underestimating the consequences of the Makerfield by-election and ongoing political risk.Ebury's base care, according to the firm's head of market strategy Matthew Ryan, is that Starmer's tenure ends in the near term through a formal leadership challenge.Ryan labeled the market risk posed by a Burnham victory as "very high.""A Burnham victory would, in our view, represent the most significant leftward shift among the realistic succession scenarios, and we would expect markets to reprice U.K. fiscal risk accordingly and quickly," he said. "His tenure as mayor perhaps offers a glimpse into his plans on a national level, i.e.
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