The collapse of teen fertility in the digital era
Teen fertility rates have declined sharply worldwide since around 2007, a trend observed across countries with varying income levels and policies. A recent study suggests that the widespread adoption of smartphones altered how teens interact, reducing in-person socializing and thereby decreasing opportunities for unintended pregnancies. The shift to digital interaction is also associated with rising teen suicide rates, indicating broader behavioral changes linked to smartphone use.
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The collapse of teen fertility in the digital era by Tyler Cowen April 30, 2026 at 12:07 pm in Data Source Web/Tech Teen fertility collapsed globally starting around 2007. This affected countries across the income and policy spectrum. This paper argues that smartphones changed how teens spend time with each other, and that this change in turn drove the collapse in teen fertility. Once enough teens are on the phone, being on the phone is where the peer network is; in-person time falls sharply, and with it the unstructured contact in which most unintended teen conceptions occur. A coordination model formalizes this tipping: as the smartphone price falls, the in-person equilibrium ceases to exist and the economy moves to a phone-mediated one.
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