Tehran-Moscow flights resume after US-Israeli strikes suspension
Flights between Tehran and Moscow have resumed after a two-month suspension linked to US-Israeli military strikes, signaling a potential reduction in regional tensions. The resumption coincides with a dip in prediction market odds for the fall of the Iranian regime, which dropped to 7.5% YES. A meeting between Putin and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi underscored strengthening Russia-Iran ties. Markets also reflect slightly lower expectations for Reza Pahlavi's return to Iran by June 30.
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Flights between Tehran and Moscow resumed after a two-month suspension caused by US-Israeli military strikes. The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market sits at 7.5% YES. Market reaction The Iranian regime fall market dropped from 8% to 7.5% YES, with traders pricing in reduced instability following the flight resumption. The Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 market also moved to 6.5% YES, down from 6% in the past 24 hours. Why it matters Putin met with Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi alongside the flight resumption, reinforcing Russia-Iran ties at a moment when both markets are pricing in regime stability. The Reza Pahlavi entering Iran market is thinly traded at $736/day. With $7,632 needed to move the odds 5 points, it’s vulnerable to swings on low volume.
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