Study: long-shot Polymarket bets on military action, defined as wagers of $2,500+ at odds of <35%, have an average ~52% win rate, above 25% for political bets (Financial Times)
A study highlighted by the Financial Times found that long-shot Polymarket bets on military action, defined as wagers of $2,500 or more at odds below 35%, have an average win rate of approximately 52%, outperforming political bets which have a 25% win rate. The data suggests that high-stakes, low-probability predictions on military events have been more successful than similar bets on political outcomes. The findings reflect emerging patterns in prediction market behavior related to geopolitical events.
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About This Page This is a Techmeme archive page. It shows how the site appeared at 7:45 AM ET, April 30, 2026. The most current version of the site as always is available at our home page. To view an earlier snapshot click here and then modify the date indicated. From Mediagazer Dade Hayes / Deadline: The NAB's CEO says the FCC's “nearly unprecedented request” for Disney to reapply for TV licenses is contrary to established principles and creates uncertainty Wall Street Journal: Sources: Amazon executives, including MGM Studios head Mike Hopkins, have discussed rebooting The Apprentice for Prime Video, with Donald Trump Jr.
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