Spheres by Default
The article argues that U.S. concessions under President Donald Trump are inadvertently enabling the emergence of a Chinese sphere of influence in Asia, not through formal agreements but by default. While Trump's summit with Xi Jinping did not yield explicit deals, his willingness to treat issues like arms sales to Taiwan as bargaining chips raises concerns. The authors warn that such actions could erode U.S. strategic and economic advantages and increase the risk of future conflict.
- ▪U.S. President Donald Trump has made unilateral concessions to China, such as allowing the sale of advanced Nvidia H200 chips despite national security concerns.
- ▪Trump referred to U.S. arms sales to Taiwan as a 'negotiating chip,' signaling a potential shift in long-standing U.S. policy.
- ▪The authors argue that spheres of influence in the 21st century can emerge by default through technological and infrastructural dominance, not just military or geographic control.
- ▪A Chinese sphere of influence in Asia could weaken U.S. AI advantages and embolden Beijing to use coercion against Taiwan.
- ▪Historical precedents show great powers have divided the world at key geopolitical moments, but modern spheres can form without explicit agreements.
Opening excerpt (first ~120 words) tap to expand
Spheres by DefaultHow U.S. Concessions Are Quietly Becoming Chinese Influence Rebecca Lissner and Mira Rapp-Hooper May 16, 2026 Chinese leader Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump in Beijing, May 2026 BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI / Pool / Reuters REBECCA LISSNER is Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy and Director of the Future of American Strategy initiative at the Council on Foreign Relations. She served as Deputy Assistant to the President and Principal Deputy National Security Adviser to the Vice President during the Biden administration.MIRA RAPP-HOOPER is a Visiting Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. She was Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for East Asia and Oceania and Director for Indo-Pacific Strategy at the U.S.
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Excerpt limited to ~120 words for fair-use compliance. The full article is at Foreign Affairs.