Sleeping Beauty and Observer Multiplicity
The manuscript presents a new framework for understanding the Sleeping Beauty problem by differentiating between world-level probability and self-locating uncertainty. It argues that observer multiplicity affects how observers are indexed within a world without changing the underlying probabilities of events. This work aims to contribute to discussions in probability theory and self-locating belief.
- ▪The framework separates world-level probability from conditional self-locating uncertainty.
- ▪Observer multiplicity introduces asymmetries in self-locating beliefs without altering the probability mass of events.
- ▪Repeated awakenings influence observer-frequency and decision-making but do not modify the underlying world probability.
Opening excerpt (first ~120 words) tap to expand
Published May 13, 2026 | Version 1.0 Preprint Open World Probability, Observer Frequency, and Self-Locating Uncertainty in the Sleeping Beauty Problem Authors/Creators Pothuri, Avaneesh Description This manuscript develops a conceptual framework for analyzing the Sleeping Beauty problem by clearly separating world-level probability from conditional self-locating uncertainty. The central claim is that observer multiplicity introduces self-locating and experiential asymmetries without altering the underlying probability mass of the world-generating event itself. In this view, repeated awakenings do not redistribute probability across possible worlds; instead, they affect how an observer is indexed within a given world.
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Excerpt limited to ~120 words for fair-use compliance. The full article is at Zenodo.