Six months out, control of the Senate is a dead heat, traders on Kalshi say
Control of the U.S. Senate is considered a tossup six months before the election, with traders on prediction markets giving Democrats a slight edge. Democrats face a challenging path to flipping the Senate, needing to win states President Trump won by double digits in 2024. Market sentiment and political developments, including foreign policy considerations, may be influenced by the tight odds.
- ▪Democrats need to win states like Ohio, Iowa, Texas, or Alaska to gain Senate control.
- ▪As of mid-April, traders on Kalshi gave Democrats a 54% chance of winning the Senate.
- ▪Bank of America economist Claudio Irigoyen noted that falling approval ratings and Senate odds are increasing incentives to resolve the war in Iran.
- ▪Traders on Polymarket showed Democrats with a 52% chance and Republicans with 50% odds of winning the Senate.
Opening excerpt (first ~120 words) tap to expand
Democrats have an uphill climb to flip control of the Senate, as the party will have to win multiple states that Trump won in 2024 by double-digits — like Ohio, Iowa, Texas or Alaska — to have a shot at a majority. However, in the middle of April, Democrats were priced with a 54% chance to win the chamber. In a Friday note, Bank of America economist Claudio Irigoyen said these odds are having an impact on policy. "The interesting thing about these moves is that, coupled with falling approval ratings for the US administration, incentives are mounting for the war in Iran to reach a resolution," Irigoyen wrote.
…
Excerpt limited to ~120 words for fair-use compliance. The full article is at CNBC — Top.
Discussion
0 commentsMore from CNBC — Top
