Russia launches 170 drones in Ukraine, Odesa hit, ceasefire unlikely

## Market Snapshot Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026, is currently priced at 0.2% YES, with a recent trend from 1% to 0%. The market for a ceasefire by May 31, 2026, is priced at 7.5% YES, up from 6% in the last 24 hours. ## Key Takeaways – The large-scale drone attack appears to decrease the likelihood of a ceasefire, as indicated by market pricing. – Market participants view the attack as consistent with continued military escalation in the region. – The current market odds reflect a low expectation for a ceasefire agreement by the end of April. ## Article Body Russia has launched over 170 drones, targeting multiple regions in Ukraine, including Odesa, resulting in one fatality and significant infrastructure damage.

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