Researchers Conclude Climate Change Worst-Case is 'Implausible'
A recent report from a UN body of researchers has deemed the extreme climate change scenario known as RCP8.5 as 'implausible.' This scenario, which predicted dire consequences from unchecked fossil fuel consumption, has influenced climate assessments and policies globally. Experts clarify that RCP8.5 was always intended as a worst-case scenario rather than a likely outcome.
- ▪The UN researchers announced that the worst-case climate scenario RCP8.5 is no longer plausible.
- ▪RCP8.5 was originally intended to represent a high-end, no-climate-policy scenario.
- ▪The scenario has influenced national climate assessments and decisions made by central banks worldwide.
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Researchers Conclude Climate Change Worst-Case is 'Implausible' John Sexton 12:50 PM | May 20, 2026 AP Photo/Bryan Woolston, File A UN body of researchers that puts together possible climate scenarios announced last week that one extreme scenario it put forward back in 2011 is no longer plausible. As Roger Pielke Jr. from AEI puts it, the climate apocalypse is no longer around the corner. Advertisement googletag.cmd.push(function () { googletag.display("div-gpt-300x250_4"); //googletag.pubads().refresh([gptAdSlot["div-gpt-300x250_4"]]) }); The climate apocalypse isn’t around the corner after all. That’s the upshot of a recent report from the international panel that supplies official “scenarios” to researchers, governments and banks.
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