Predicting AI job exposure
The article discusses the challenges of predicting job exposure to AI and automation. It highlights that while technology can disrupt industries, historical data shows that some jobs may remain stable or even grow despite automation. The author argues that the relationship between technology and employment is complex and often unpredictable.
- ▪Predicting job exposure to AI is challenging due to the unpredictable nature of technological advancements.
- ▪Historical data indicates that some jobs, like accounting, have not suffered as expected from automation.
- ▪The nature of jobs can change significantly over time, even if job titles remain the same.
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Predicting AI job exposure It would be really nice if we had some way to analyse which jobs, companies and industries were exposed to AI, and if we could assign scores, and build charts, and map that against the progress of large language models. We know, in principle, that like every other big wave of technology, AI is bound to destroy some jobs and create others. But which ones? In the last three years a bunch of people have been very busy crunching census data, making tables and building viral charts. I think this is mostly impossible: I think this is an exercise in predicting something that cannot be predicted. The simplest way to see the problem is to back-test this against other big technology shifts in the past.
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Excerpt limited to ~120 words for fair-use compliance. The full article is at Benedict Evans.
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