Office demand rebounds to highest level since Covid pandemic began

A version of this article first appeared in the CNBC Property Play newsletter with Diana Olick. Property Play covers new and evolving opportunities for the real estate investor, from individuals to venture capitalists, private equity funds, family offices, institutional investors and large public companies. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.Despite the war with Iran and continued economic uncertainty in the U.S., demand for office space is recovering at a strong clip. In the first quarter of this year, new in-person and virtual office tours reached their highest level since the pandemic began, as measured by the VTS Office Demand Index. The index is a future indicator of lease signings about a year or more out.The index rose 18% from the fourth quarter 2025 and 13% from the same quarter one year ago. "Although tested against a turbulent backdrop, demand for office space has seen an exceptional start to the year," Nick Romito, CEO of commercial real estate software company VTS, said in a release. "What perhaps is most notable about this quarter's positive performance is that it was led not just by tech's sustained AI boom – but also by finance and legal companies entering the market as well."The surge in demand is curious, given that office-using employment is still down 2% from 2022, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Usually, that would result in less office demand, but the drop in employment could also be giving employers more leverage to get workers back into the office.Nationally, for all buildings, the office vacancy rate fell 14 basis points to 22.2% in the first quarter of this year from the previous quarter and is down 30 basis points from the last peak in Q2 2025, according to a report from JLL, a commercial real estate services and investment management company. Vacancy remains hyper-concentrated predominantly in larger-scale, aging buildings with financially constrained owners, with 10% of office buildings comprising more than 60% of total national vacancy.As with everything in real estate, the office recovery is local. San Francisco and New York City are leading office demand, as AI tech employment rises quickly in the former and diversity of employment fuels the latter. Los Angeles also saw double-digit increases in demand on a quarterly basis, fueled by significant growth in the creative industry, according to VTS.Cities seeing weaker demand include Boston, which was the worst-performing market in the report. Life science offices have taken a hit in that city, due to significant government funding cuts.In addition, demand is contracting in Seattle, Washington, D.C., and Chicago, as they are not seeing strong employment growth. "The AI boom continues to be a dominant headline for office, and markets that lack a major tech presence, or are without a primary growth lever in another industry, are seeing declines in demand," Ryan Masiello, chief strategy officer of VTS, said in a release. "LA's positive performance this time around was a new bright spot – and it remains to be seen if Los Angeles can sustain growth in the near term."

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