New odds show shocking movement in LA mayor’s race — as Karen Bass tanks
Recent prediction market odds show Spencer Pratt surpassing incumbent Karen Bass in the Los Angeles mayoral race, with Pratt at 25% and Bass at 18%, while Nithya Raman leads at 60%. Pratt's surge follows a widely viewed campaign ad referencing his home lost in the 2025 Palisades Fire and criticism of current leadership. Despite trailing in polls, Pratt's growing support in betting markets reflects shifting dynamics ahead of the June 2 primary.
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Politics New odds show shocking movement in LA mayor’s race — as Karen Bass tanks By Ross O'Keefe Published April 30, 2026, 2:23 p.m. ET Spencer Pratt’s odds beating incumbent Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass in the upcoming election have surged, according to a popular prediction platform. As of Thursday morning, Kalshi had Pratt’s odds of winning at 25% compared to Bass’ 18%, marking a nearly 10% surge for the independent since April 24. Democratic socialist Nithya Raman led overall with a 60% chance. “They let my home burn down. I know the consequences of failed leadership,” Pratt added, promising to usher in a new “Golden Age” in LA. The ad received some rave reviews. Pratt had a 43% chance of coming in second, while Raman had a 30% chance, the platform said.
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