More than half of all "long shot" bets on Polymarket pay off
More than half of long-shot bets on military and defense-related events on Polymarket have been successful, according to a report by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, raising concerns about insider trading and national security risks. The findings follow U.S. charges against a soldier accused of using classified information to place profitable bets on a Venezuelan military operation. The report highlights structural vulnerabilities in political prediction markets and growing regulatory scrutiny over the use of sensitive information for financial gain on such platforms.
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all bets are on More than half of all Polymarket “long shot” bets on military action pay off Sensitive information and the prediction markets can be a winning combination. Stephanie Stacey, Chris Cook, and Jill R Shah, Financial Times – Apr 30, 2026 9:16 am | 11 Gannon Ken Van Dyke is alleged to have made predictions on positions including "Maduro out" while in possession of classified information. Credit: FT montage/Bloomberg/Reuters Gannon Ken Van Dyke is alleged to have made predictions on positions including "Maduro out" while in possession of classified information.
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