Jerome Powell likely chairs final FOMC meeting, Kevin Warsh to succeed
Jerome Powell is expected to chair his final FOMC meeting today, with Kevin Warsh poised to take over next month. Market speculation about Powell's departure has fluctuated, with significant movements in contract pricing reflecting traders' expectations. Warsh's anticipated confirmation could lead to changes in monetary policy direction, particularly regarding inflation response.
- ▪Jerome Powell is likely chairing his last FOMC meeting today.
- ▪Kevin Warsh is set to take over as chair next month.
- ▪Market contracts indicate a high probability of Powell's departure by May 31.
Opening excerpt (first ~120 words) tap to expand
Jerome Powell is likely chairing his last FOMC meeting today, with Kevin Warsh set to take over next month. The market for Powell stepping down by May 14 sits at 5% YES, while the May 31 contract trades at 97% YES. Market reaction The May 14 contract spiked from 2% to 50% at 11:40 AM yesterday but quickly settled back to 5%. Traders briefly priced in an immediate exit, then reverted. The May 15 contract jumped to 73.5% YES, up from 26% just a day ago, a 47.5-point surge reflecting increased expectations of Powell’s departure in that window. The June 30 contract sits at 98.4% YES, with traders betting on Warsh stepping in well before then.
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