Iran’s internet blackout enters tenth week amid ongoing conflict
Iran's internet blackout has now lasted ten weeks, with connectivity at just 1% of normal levels, amid an ongoing regional conflict involving the United States and Israel. The blackout, which includes restrictions on VPNs and satellite services, coincides with heightened regime instability following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Market indicators suggest a moderate increase in the likelihood of regime fall by June 30, influenced by information control and leadership succession concerns.
- ▪Iran's internet connectivity has dropped to approximately 1% of normal levels, according to NetBlocks.
- ▪The blackout began during a military conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel that started on February 28, 2026.
- ▪Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed, contributing to regional instability and leadership uncertainty.
- ▪A ceasefire was attempted on April 8, but internet restrictions have persisted.
- ▪Market pricing for Iranian regime fall by June 30 is currently at 6.5% YES, reflecting perceived instability.
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## Market Snapshot The Iranian regime fall market for June 30 is currently priced at 6.5% YES, down from 8% a week ago. The April 30 market has closed at 0.1% YES with no significant change in the last 24 hours. ## Key Takeaways – The prolonged internet blackout suggests heightened regime instability, consistent with increased YES pricing for regime fall. – The crackdown on communication tools may indicate efforts to maintain regime control, impacting market perspectives on regime durability. – Recent developments in the conflict, such as leadership changes, appear consistent with scenarios where regime stability is questioned. ## Article Body Iran’s internet blackout has entered its tenth consecutive week, with the nation experiencing near-total digital isolation.
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