Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirms 14-point MOU targets war end, Hormuz transit deal
Iran's Foreign Ministry has confirmed a 14-point memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war and facilitating safe commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The MOU includes a potential 60-day negotiation period for nuclear issues if finalized. Market reactions indicate skepticism about a formal announcement occurring soon, with significant drops in near-term ceasefire pricing.
- ▪The MOU focuses on ending the war and lifting the U.S. naval blockade in exchange for Iran ensuring safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
- ▪Market pricing for the May 26 ceasefire has dropped sharply from 72% to 13.5%, indicating doubts about a formal announcement.
- ▪The June 7 ceasefire extension market is currently priced at 56.5% YES, suggesting some optimism for longer-term resolutions.
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## Market Snapshot The US-Iran ceasefire extension market (May 26 deadline) is priced at 13.5% YES, down sharply from 72% 24 hours ago. The July 31 Hormuz normalization market holds at 69.5% YES, while near-term Hormuz transit sub-markets have fallen significantly from prior-day levels. ## Key Takeaways – Pricing appears consistent with YES outcome support for longer-dated Hormuz and ceasefire markets, suggesting participants view the MOU framework as a potential catalyst beyond the immediate May 25–26 window. – The sharp collapse in near-term ceasefire pricing (72% → 13.5% for May 26) suggests markets interpret “if finalized” language as inconsistent with imminent formal announcement.
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