Iran responds to US deal amendments via Pakistani mediators: Axios

## Market Snapshot The “US-Iran Ceasefire” market currently shows a 0.1% likelihood for a YES outcome, unchanged from the previous day. Meanwhile, the “Iran Military Action” market remains at 100% YES, indicating unchanged expectations of military conflict. ## Key Takeaways – Iran’s response through Pakistani mediators suggests continued diplomatic engagement, which may indicate a preference for negotiations over renewed conflict. – The unchanged pricing in the “US-Iran Ceasefire” market suggests that market participants see little immediate impact on the probability of a formal ceasefire announcement. – The “Iran Military Action” market’s steady pricing at 100% YES indicates persistent expectations of military engagement, despite ongoing diplomatic efforts.

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