Iran executes protest figures amid rising unrest and internet crackdown
Iran is experiencing escalating domestic unrest amid a prolonged internet blackout and severe government crackdowns. The regime has executed protest figures and targeted individuals using Starlink to bypass internet restrictions, signaling heightened efforts to suppress dissent. These actions coincide with broader instability linked to recent conflicts with Israel and the United States.
- ▪The Iranian government has executed Sassan Azadvar, a prominent karate champion involved in protests, and at least 20 others since February 2026.
- ▪Security forces have arrested individuals and seized Starlink devices used to bypass a nationwide internet blackout that has lasted over two months.
- ▪Nationwide protests have been fueled by ongoing conflict with Israel and the United States following airstrikes on Iran in late February 2026.
- ▪Market indicators show a slight increase in the perceived likelihood of regime change by June 30, rising to 6.5% YES.
- ▪Observers are watching for potential IRGC defections, large-scale protests, and the impact of a US congressional deadline on May 1.
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## Market Snapshot Market: Iranian Regime Fall Current Pricing: 0.1% YES for April 30, 6.5% YES for June 30 Trend: Slight increase in June 30 market, stable at 0.1% for April 30 ## Key Takeaways – The escalation in domestic repression appears to suggest increasing instability within Iran. – The execution of protest figures and arrests related to Starlink usage are consistent with heightened regime vulnerability. – Market pricing reflects a moderate increase in the perceived likelihood of regime change by June. ## Article Body In Iran, domestic unrest continues to escalate amid a severe internet blackout that has persisted for over two months.
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