Indonesia blindly drifting into a US vs China storm
Indonesia is navigating a delicate geopolitical position amid rising US-China tensions, recently signing a defense agreement with Japan and engaging in strategic discussions with the US and its allies. While maintaining strong economic ties with China and participating in China-backed initiatives like BRICS+, Indonesia's moves are raising concerns in Beijing about potential military cooperation with the US. The country's strategic location near critical maritime chokepoints amplifies the stakes, as its airspace and sea lanes could play a pivotal role in any future Indo-Pacific conflict.
- ▪Indonesia signed a defense cooperation agreement with Japan that could enable the transfer of lethal weaponry.
- ▪The US has requested expanded military overflight access in Indonesia, raising concerns in China about regional alignment.
- ▪China views Indonesia's defense engagements with the US and Japan as potentially undermining regional stability, despite Indonesia's official non-alignment policy.
- ▪Indonesia is China's largest trading partner and joined BRICS+ in 2025, deepening economic and institutional ties outside US-led frameworks.
- ▪Indonesia's geographic position near the Strait of Malacca makes its airspace and maritime routes strategically significant in US-China strategic competition.
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Earlier this month, Indonesia and Japan signed a defense cooperation agreement that could eventually allow Jakarta to acquire lethal weaponry from Tokyo. The move was the latest in a series of strategic engagements signaling that Indonesia is beginning to lean toward one side amid intensifying geopolitical rivalry in Indo-Pacific. When I argued last July that the US–Indonesia trade compromise would test President Prabowo Subianto’s non-aligned strategic discipline, the assumption was that Jakarta would have time to calibrate. It has not, and does not.
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Excerpt limited to ~120 words for fair-use compliance. The full article is at Asia Times.
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