IAEA warns Iran may hide enriched uranium at Isfahan amid stalled diplomacy

## Market Snapshot Iran’s enriched uranium surrender market shows a 0.1% YES probability for April 30, 2026, unchanged from the previous day, but down from 5% a week ago. The US obtaining Iranian uranium market indicates a 9.5% YES probability for May 31, up from 8% a day ago. ## Key Takeaways – The IAEA’s warning appears to suggest unresolved proliferation risks, impacting expectations for Iran’s uranium surrender. – Current pricing suggests market participants view the likelihood of the US obtaining Iranian uranium by May 31 as low. – Limited diplomatic progress appears consistent with decreased probabilities in uranium transfer markets.

…

Excerpt limited to ~120 words for fair-use compliance. The full article is at Crypto Briefing.