Haredi draft bill debates resume as Israeli coalition faces dissolution risk
The Israeli Knesset has resumed discussions on a contentious draft bill regarding the military conscription of ultra-Orthodox Jews. This situation is exacerbating tensions within Prime Minister Netanyahu's coalition, raising the likelihood of parliamentary dissolution. The ongoing debates are occurring against the backdrop of the conflict in Gaza, highlighting the urgency of resolving this political issue.
- ▪The Knesset is debating a draft bill on ultra-Orthodox military conscription.
- ▪Coalition tensions are increasing the risk of parliament dissolution.
- ▪Haredi factions threaten to support dissolution if their demands are unmet.
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## Market Snapshot Israeli Parliament Dissolution market currently prices a 51.5% YES outcome for dissolution by June 30, up from 40% in the last 24 hours. The Netanyahu Out market for the end of 2026 is priced at 50.5% YES, showing little movement from 50% a day earlier. ## Key Takeaways – The resumption of debates on the Haredi draft bill appears to increase the risk of Knesset dissolution. – Coalition tensions suggest a heightened possibility of Netanyahu’s government facing instability. – The ongoing debates have little impact on Israel-Indonesia normalization markets, maintaining a lower probability of changes.
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