Frontier labs don't use most AI compute(yet)
OpenAI and Anthropic are rapidly increasing their AI compute capabilities, outpacing the industry growth. Predictions suggest that by 2027, OpenAI's data center capacity could reach around 12 GW, while Anthropic is also expected to grow significantly. This trend indicates a consolidation of the AI compute market among these leading labs.
- ▪OpenAI's data center power capacity tripled in both 2024 and 2025, with a projected growth of 2.5× annually by 2027.
- ▪Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate surged from $9 billion to $30 billion in early 2026, reflecting a 10x growth rate.
- ▪Both labs are aggressively securing more compute resources, including multi-gigawatt expansions with major tech companies.
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Will Anthropic and OpenAI absorb the rest of global AI compute?While much of the world’s AI compute isn’t used by the top labs today, this situation could change significantly in the next few years. In particular, I think Anthropic and OpenAI are the key players to watch.OpenAI and Anthropic grew compute faster than the industry as a whole, at least in 2025.4 OpenAI tripled its data center power capacity in both 2024 and 2025; after accounting for improved hardware efficiency, their computing power grew around 4× annually.5 Anthropic is probably growing even faster, since they’ve been catching up with OpenAI in revenue and funding.
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