Does a recession loom this year? Not if you listen to the stock market
The article argues that a recession is unlikely in 2024 in the U.S. and Canada, despite economic concerns such as rising oil prices, inflation, and stress in private credit markets, because stock market performance from November to April has been positive. Historical data shows that recessions typically coincide with negative stock returns during this period, which has not occurred this year. The author attributes the market's strength to institutional investor behavior and seasonal trends in portfolio management.
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Open this photo in gallery:The November-to-April period this year is not turning out to be a bust for the stock market and the signal it gives is that the economy won’t be either, writes George Athanassakos.dickcraft/iStockPhoto / Getty ImagesShareSave for laterPlease log in to bookmark this story.Log InCreate Free AccountIs a recession unavoidable this year? Surging oil prices amid the Middle East conflict and cracks in private credit markets provide plenty of reason for concern.But I don’t think one will materialize - not in the United States, and probably not in Canada either. And that’s largely because of stock market performance so far this year and what history suggests it portends. Let me explain.
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