Climate change’s worst-case scenario is officially canceled
The highest-emission climate scenario, RCP 8.5, has been officially retired by scientists, marking a significant shift in climate projections. This change indicates that the previously feared apocalyptic outcomes are no longer considered plausible, with a new central estimate of 2.8°C warming by 2100. The retirement of RCP 8.5 reflects progress in climate policy and clean energy advancements, offering a more hopeful outlook for the future.
- ▪RCP 8.5 was the highest-emission scenario used to project climate change outcomes.
- ▪Scientists have eliminated RCP 8.5 from future climate assessments due to falling clean-energy costs and changing emissions trends.
- ▪The new central estimate for warming by 2100 is now 2.8°C, indicating a less dire future than previously projected.
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Future PerfectClimate change’s worst-case scenario is officially canceledWhat comes next will depend on us.by Bryan WalshMay 23, 2026, 12:00 PM UTCShareGiftGetty Images/Xu WuBryan Walsh is a senior editorial director at Vox overseeing the climate teams and the Unexplainable and The Gray Area podcasts. He is also the editor of Vox’s Future Perfect section and writes the Good News newsletter. He worked at Time magazine for 15 years as a foreign correspondent in Asia, a climate writer, and an international editor, and he wrote a book on existential risk.You’ve probably never heard of the term “RCP 8.5” — the highest-emission scenario used by climate scientists to project the planet’s future.
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