Bond yields may finally be baking in an AI world
The rise in bond yields is closely linked to the ongoing artificial intelligence boom, which is expected to significantly increase capital expenditures. This shift is anticipated to raise the neutral real interest rate, challenging the notion of a return to the low-rate environment of the past decade. However, concerns remain about the impact of AI on jobs and income distribution, potentially exacerbating inequality.
- ▪Goldman Sachs estimates AI capital expenditures will reach US$7.6 trillion over the next five years.
- ▪The Institute of International Finance suggests that a successful AI cycle will raise the neutral real interest rate due to higher expected returns.
- ▪Barclays' Equity-Gilt Study indicates that rising productivity and capital expenditure needs point to a higher neutral real interest rate.
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ShareSave for laterPlease log in to bookmark this story.Log InCreate Free AccountAlthough some are puzzled by the coincidence of an artificial intelligence boom and rising borrowing costs, they are closely linked. Beyond the immediate heat of the AI investment frenzy, a long-term productivity surge is lifting estimates of neutral interest rates even as workers’ share of the GDP pie declines.The Iran-related oil shock and its immediate inflation fallout explain some of this month’s bond market jitters.
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