After 15 Weeks, Brazil’s Inflation Forecasts Finally Stop Rising
Brazil’s central bank Focus survey showed the 2026 inflation forecast stabilised at 5.33% after fifteen weeks of increases. The rate remains above the official target ceiling of 4.5%, while the year‑end Selic rate projection is 14.00%, suggesting one more quarter‑point cut. Longer‑term outlooks indicate a higher 2028 policy rate and a trimmed 2027 growth forecast, with the real’s exchange‑rate projection near current levels.
- ▪The Boletim Focus weekly poll held the 2026 inflation forecast at 5.33%, the first time it did not rise in fifteen consecutive weeks.
- ▪The 5.33% inflation forecast is above the 4.5% ceiling of the central bank’s target range, whose midpoint is 3%.
- ▪The year‑end Selic rate call remained at 14.00%, implying a possible additional 0.25 percentage‑point cut from the current 14.25% rate.
- ▪The longer‑term projection for the 2028 policy rate edged up to 10.5% and the 2027 GDP growth estimate was reduced to 1.68%.
- ▪The year‑end exchange‑rate forecast stayed at 5.20 reais per US dollar, close to the prevailing market rate.
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Markets Brazil After 15 Weeks, Brazil’s Inflation Forecasts Finally Stop Rising By Javier Mendoza · June 30, 2026 · 5 min read Daily Brief The morning intel from across Latin America. Free. Subscribe By subscribing you agree to our privacy policy. We never share your email. Markets Key Facts —The survey. The Boletim Focus is the Brazilian central bank’s weekly poll of more than one hundred banks and economists, published every Monday. —The pause. On June 29 the 2026 inflation forecast held at 5.33%, the first time it has not risen in fifteen straight weeks. —Still high. That 5.33% sits above the 4.5% ceiling of the official target, whose centre is 3%. —The rate. The year-end Selic call held at 14.00%, implying just one more quarter-point cut from today’s 14.25%. —The long view.
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