38 million full-time jobs may fall if war in West Asia continues, warns ILO
The ILO warns that the ongoing crisis in West Asia could lead to significant job losses globally, with estimates of up to 38 million full-time jobs at risk. The report highlights that rising energy costs and supply chain disruptions are already impacting economies and labor markets. It emphasizes the need for stronger policy responses to mitigate the long-term effects on employment and income.
- ▪The ILO report estimates that if oil prices rise significantly, working hours could decrease by 0.5% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027, leading to a loss of 14 million and 38 million full-time jobs, respectively.
- ▪Real labor income could decline by 1.1% and 3%, resulting in losses of around US$1.1 trillion and US$3 trillion.
- ▪The unemployment rate may increase by 0.1% in 2026 and 0.5% in 2027, translating to an additional five million unemployed in 2026 and 20 million in 2027.
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The crisis in West Asia is increasingly affecting jobs, working conditions and incomes far beyond the region, as higher energy costs, disrupted transport routes, supply chain pressure, weaker tourism and migration constraints weigh on economies and labour markets, according to a new International Labour Organization (ILO) report.Released in Geneva on Monday (May 18, 2026), the report titled ‘Employment and Social Trends: May 2026 Update’ warned that if fuel or fertilizer prices rise, or shortages persist, the effects could extend beyond farm incomes to food prices, rural livelihoods and food security, in countries that depend on imported fertilizers, including India.The report, though, pointed out that the impact of the crisis on global labour market will take time to materialise, but the…
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