2028: Two scenarios for global AI leadership
The article discusses the competition in AI development between the US and China, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a technological edge. It presents two potential scenarios for 2028, one where the US successfully defends its advantage and another where it fails to act, allowing China to catch up. The piece highlights the implications of these scenarios for global AI governance and the risks posed by authoritarian regimes.
- ▪The US government currently limits China's access to advanced computer chips through export controls.
- ▪In one scenario, America successfully defends its compute advantage and engages with China on AI safety.
- ▪In the alternative scenario, a lack of action allows China to catch up, leading to AI norms shaped by authoritarian regimes.
Opening excerpt (first ~120 words) tap to expand
Policy2028: Two scenarios for global AI leadershipMay 14, 2026We’re releasing a new paper that explains our views on the competition on AI between the US and China.It’s essential that the US and its allies stay ahead of authoritarian governments like the Chinese Communist Party, or CCP. AI will soon become powerful enough to be used to repress citizens at unprecedented scale, and even to alter the balance of power among nations. And since AI is advancing more quickly by the day, we have only a limited period of time to set the conditions of the competition—and determine whether and how those threats materialize.
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Excerpt limited to ~120 words for fair-use compliance. The full article is at Anthropic.
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